When veteran Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo talks, markets listen. That's because Kuo, based in Hong Kong, sits in the middle of Apple's Asia-Pacific supply chain; he knows all the vendors, sees the Apple gears in motion when any new iPhone is in the works, and is usually on the money.
In a new interview, Kuo says that the iPhone Fold — Apple's first smartphone with a folding screen — is real, and it's coming next year. But he also warns that the company is having a hard time building them fast enough to meet the likely massive demand. (Likely massive because ... c'mon. Foldable. iPhone.)
"Development of the foldable iPhone is behind earlier expectations, but the product is still expected to announce" in the second half of 2026, Kuo writes in his summary of the interview. "Due to early-stage yield and ramp-up challenges, smooth shipments may not occur until 2027. With limited supply and expected strong demand, the foldable iPhone could be facing shortages until at least the end of 2026."
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Translation: The iPhone-making machine in Kuo's part of the world, the one that the Cupertino company still relies on, isn't ramping up fast enough and doesn't have enough materials. So, a lot of customers are going to find they can't get the top item on their Christmas lists in 2026.
And that means we're looking at another iPhone 14 Pro/Max situation. That was where — as Kuo predicted at the time — many customers found them out of stock at the Apple store until 2023, despite an October 2022 launch.
That's not the only reason you might be disappointed by the iPhone Fold. The other reason: Its price tag.
Another analyst in the region pegged the likely cost at $2,399, which is on the high end of other analyst estimates. You could get at least two MacBook Air laptops for that price (and maybe even three with the M4 chip at current prices.)
That may be too much for many consumers, especially if the economy takes a post-AI bubble downturn. Which would mean diminished demand, which in turn would mean that if you really want to shell out all that scratch for an iPhone Fold, you might just have a chance of getting one in time to take candid shots with its cameras (two on the front, two on the back, according to the rumor mill) on New Year's Eve 2026.
Chris is a veteran tech, entertainment and culture journalist, author of 'How Star Wars Conquered the Universe,' and co-host of the Doctor Who podcast 'Pull to Open.' Hailing from the U.K., Chris got his start as a sub editor on national newspapers. He moved to the U.S. in 1996, and became senior news writer for Time.com a year later. In 2000, he was named San Francisco bureau chief for Time magazine. He has served as senior editor for Business 2.0, and West Coast editor for Fortune Small Business and Fast Company. Chris is a graduate of Merton College, Oxford and the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He is also a long-time volunteer at 826 Valencia, the nationwide after-school program co-founded by author Dave Eggers. His book on the history of Star Wars is an international bestseller and has been translated into 11 languages.
