It is May 1 and we're now into the part of the baseball season when things become real. Spring training and April are full of lies. May is when the rubber hits the road and we get a better idea of what the season actually is. This team is for real, those players are breaking out, those guys are in for a long season, etc. May is when things settle into place.
With that in mind, here are five questions for the season's second month that will help define the rest of the year ahead.
1. Can the Astros, Mets, Phillies or Red Sox turn it around?
You could even lump the defending American League champion Blue Jays in here, though they haven't struggled nearly as much as the four teams above. Here are the bottom of the league standings entering Friday:
30. Mets: 10-21 (minus-35 run differential)
29. Angels: 12-20 (minus-11 run differential)
28. Astros: 12-20 (minus-26 run differential)
27. Phillies: 12-19 (minus-45 run differential)
26. Red Sox: 12-19 (minus-16 run differential)
I'm not sure anyone outside Orange County expected the Angels to contend, so their place in the standings isn't a surprise. The other four teams though? They all entered the season as at least wild-card contenders. Instead, they're jockeying for position in the draft lottery a month into the season. Those four teams have done real damage to their postseason odds:
The Phillies and Red Sox have already fired their managers and it feels like the Mets could fire Carlos Mendoza at any moment. Joe Espada, who, like Mendoza, is in the final year of his contract, shouldn't be considered safe either, not that he's the one who built an Astros pitching staff with a 6.08 ERA (no other team is worse than a 5.11 ERA). Those seats are flaming hot, not just warm.
There is a long way to go in a long season. The Blue Jays were 25-27 and seven games out in the division last May 25. They had the league's best record the rest of the way and went to the World Series. There is plenty of time for the Astros, Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox to turn their seasons around. It has to start right now, though. They've already exhausted their margins of error.
2. Will another American League team separate itself from the pack?
The NL is fairly top-heavy, while the AL is pretty mediocre throughout. Only three AL teams (Athletics, Rays, Yankees) have a winning record on May 1 and the league run differential leaderboard is comical:
1. Yankees: plus-47
2. Tigers: plus-9
3. Rangers: plus-8
4. Mariners: plus-7
5. Twins: plus-5
6. Rays: minus-1
One month into 2026, the Yankees look like the class of the AL, even though Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón have combined to throw zero pitches in the majors, the bullpen is shaky, and the bottom third of the order has been unproductive. Cole and Rodón are on minor-league rehab assignments and will soon join a staff that leads baseball in ERA (3.11), FIP (3.48), xERA (3.42), and WAR (5.5).
The Blue Jays (14-17) are getting healthy and starting to trend up. The Mariners (16-16) have won six of their last seven and are beginning to look like the team that was five outs away from the pennant last year. The Rays (18-12) keep hanging around despite middle-of-the-pack offense and run prevention. The Tigers (16-16) have yet to show any consistency this year.
Those four clubs look like the best bets to start creating separation from the rest of the league this month and put themselves closer to the Yankees than everyone else. The AL Central and AL West in particular look pretty underwhelming. There's an opening for a team to move into first place in May and cruise to a division title the rest of the way.
3. Can Mason Miller continue at this pace?
Padres closer Mason Miller is actually in a bit of a slump right now, if you can call it that. He gave up his first two runs of the season earlier this week and he's struck out only one of his last 18 batters. That's after fanning a preposterous 28 of the first 39 batters he's faced. Miller leads baseball with 10 saves and has 29 strikeouts in 15 ⅓ innings.
Here are the best strikeout rate months for a reliever in baseball history (minimum 15 innings):
- Josh Hader, Brewers: 62.9% (April 2018)
- Corey Knebel, Brewers: 57.9% (Sept. 2018)
- Eric Gagne, Dodgers: 54.8% (Aug. 2003)
- Adam Ottavino, Rockies: 54.5% (April 2018)
- Mason Miller, Padres: 53.7% (April 2026)
Set the minimum to 60 innings and only two pitchers have ever struck out more than half the batters they faced in a full season: Craig Kimbrel with the 2012 Braves (50.2%) and Edwin Díaz with the 2022 Mets (50.2%). Miller could not only join them, but he could set a new single-season strikeout record, given his overwhelming 103 mph fastball and wipeout slider.
Nine relievers have won the Cy Young, but only one, Gagne in 2003, has won it in the last 28 years. The very best relief seasons of the last decade (Zack Britton in 2016, Emmanuel Clase in 2024, etc.) have topped out at third place in the Cy Young voting. Miller is on the path to having that kind of season. A strikeout rate record and maybe even a Cy Young could be in the offing.
Beyond that, the Padres are 19-11 overall and they're 7-2 in games decided by two or fewer runs. They are 14-0 when Miller enters with a lead or the game tied. The Padres are middle of the pack offensively and the rotation is held together by duct tape and glue. They need a dominant Miller to keep winning these close games. Forget Cy Young. Could he get MVP votes?
4. Which surprise teams will keep it up?
If any? The White Sox are 14-17, which obviously isn't good, but this team lost 223 games between 2024 and 2025. The Rockies are 14-18. Last year, they were 14-57. The Nationals, after losing at least 91 games every year from 2021-25, are off to a 15-17 start and they have averaged 5.47 runs scored per game. Only the Braves are better (5.53). The pesky Marlins are 15-16.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is the Cardinals. President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom kicked off a needed rebuild in the offseason by trading Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, and Sonny Gray for prospects. Now, a month into 2026, St. Louis is 18-13 and proving to be a rather annoying team to play against. The NL Central is winnable. Can they put pressure on the Cubs et al for another few months?
I can't say I expect to look up in September and see the Cardinals, Marlins, Nationals, Rockies, or White Sox in the middle of the postseason race, but hey, crazier things have happened. Sometimes a team we don't expect to contend has a good April and hangs around the race. If nothing else, these rebuilding clubs look more competitive than expected. They're not total pushovers.
5. What news will CBA talks bring?
MLB and the MLB Players Association are expected to begin discussions about a new collective bargaining agreement this month. A new deal will not be reached, that much I know. We could start to get some news about what each side is pushing for, though. How dug in are the owners about getting a salary cap? What do the players want (early arbitration, higher minimum salary, etc.)?
The owners have done a good job framing the need for a salary cap around competitive balance when it's really just about keeping payrolls down and boosting franchise values. Frankly, if the owners push the competitive balance angle, the MLBPA should just pull up Mets and Phillies highlights. They're at the bottom of the standings despite having two of the five highest payrolls.
The CBA expires on Dec. 1 and the possibility of another lockout is unfortunately hanging like a dark cloud over this tremendously entertaining season. This is very important stuff. The CBA runs the sport. But also, no fans wants to hear the owners and players bicker over money. They just want to watch baseball. Hopefully, the CBA leaks will be kept to a minimum.
