With 15 MLB games on the schedule, Saturday is an excellent day to keep tabs of all things baseball. There are a ton of big matchups on the docket for May 2, which means there are plenty of MLB betting, including MLB home prop bets. We've highlighted two players we think have a great chance to leave the yard on Saturday in favorable matchups, and they're our two favorite MLB HR picks of the day.
For even more MLB expert picks and predictions, make sure to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
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Best home run picks for Saturday, May 2
Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+390, BetMGM)
Alvarez battled injuries last year and the worst year of his career in 2025. Well, the star Houston slugger has been punishing baseballs in the early stages of 2026 with 12 home runs and an OPS well over 1.000 as he's on the shortlist of top AL MVP candidates. Alvarez is seeing the ball well with more walks (21) than strikeouts (15), and while he faces a tough young lefty in Boston's Connelly Early on Saturday, it really doesn't matter for Alvarez at this point. Alvarez actually is slugging far better against lefties (.786 SLG) than righties (.667) with five homers off southpaws in just 49 plate appearances. Lefties have also hit slightly better off Connelly (.414 SLG, .687 OPS) than right-handed hitters (.333 SLG, .660 OPS). Alvarez is red hot and he can leave the yard against anyone, and he has power to all fields, too. That can bode well at Fenway Park.
Use the BetMGM bonus code to place home run prop bets on Saturday.
Jordan Walker, Cardinals (+400, Caesars)
After some major struggles at the plate to begin his MLB career, Walker appears to be putting it together. The former top Cardinals prospect has slugged nine home runs this year and has an .956 OPS. He homered on Thursday for the first time since April 13, which was a stretch of seven home runs in nine games. Walker had scuffled a bit since then, but he has hit well over his last few games. Walker gets favorable matchup on Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Roki Sasaki is set to take the mound, and despite entering last year with all sorts of hype, the Japanese right-hander has struggled as an MLB starter. That's still true this year as he has a 6.35 ERA in five starts while allowing seven home runs. Notably, four of those long balls have been hit by left-handed hitters compared to three by righties, but lefties have had 71 plate appearances against Sasaki compared to 37 by right-handers. Right-handed hitters are slugging .645 off Sasaki this season. Walker, who hits right handed, has power for days and could certainly get back in the homer column against Sasaki, who has really been hit around in the early stages of 2026.
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