Even though there are only seven games on the MLB schedule for Thursday, May 21, those interested in MLB betting and specifically home run prop betting still have plenty of intriguing options to target for their wagers. SportsLine expert Adam Thomspon has gone through the schedule and highlighted his best home run prop bets for the day.
Thompson was one of the earliest SportsLine experts back in 2016-19 and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, MLB and the NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up over 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps.
Here's a look at who Thompson is backing to go yard on Thursday. Sign up at DraftKings to follow Thompson's picks and get $100 in bonus bets instantly once you wager $5 or more:
Best home run picks for Thursday, May 21
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+504)
The Blue Jays' offense has underperformed and been mostly punchless. Aside from rookie Kazuma Okamoto and his 10 home runs, nobody else has more than five, including Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. Guerrero's power outage is bound to reverse course, and this seems like a prime spot for that to happen. Two of his three homers have been against left-handers and his .935 OPS vs. lefties remains elite.
Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon (0-1, 5.63) has thrown eight innings through two starts and has not been particularly sharp. In 17 at-bats against Rodon, Guerrero Jr. is hitting .588 with an OPS of 1.608 and one home run.
Shea Langeliers, Athletics (+360)
Langeliers has established himself as a premier hitter with power and contacts. He has 12 home runs and is batting .322. He's in the midst of a slump -- .222 with zero homers the last seven games. This looks to be a spot to get back on track.
Jose Soriano has given up four homers the last four games with a 6.14 ERA in those outings. Langeliers has two home runs off Soriano in only 11 at-bats, and six hits overall. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field, and the right-handed Langeliers is a heavy pull hitter.
