EAGLE PASS, Texas -- The black campaign bus with “Talarico for Texas” across its side came to a steaming stop at Memo’s Restaurant along the U.S.-Mexico border. Bibi Valdez’s eyes lit up. She marched in heels over to the bus, phone camera trained on its door, chatting about the locals whose political leanings shifted two years ago.

“A lot of people, for some reason, especially the Hispanics, changed to Republican," she said as security guards created space for James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate. “I just don’t see what the logic was.”

Talarico is on a quest to become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas since 1994. Memo's Restaurant was one stop on a winding trip along the border this month, where he was searching for support from the predominantly Hispanic counties that became national political curiosities after the 2024 election.

Once consistently Democratic, most had voted for Republican President Donald Trump, some by a lot, as Hispanic voters shifted to the right nationally. Along this stretch of border, residents and elected leaders alike tend to point to two reasons: the rise in both border crossings and everyday prices. One dropped dramatically since 2024, and it wasn’t the cost of eggs.

While Trump has tamped down on illegal border crossings — once Democrats' Achilles' heel — the cost of living is still high, giving Talarico a topic he's been hitting on repeat as he campaigns against Republican Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general.

Whether Talarico's message can sway Hispanic voters who moved to the GOP to return to the Democratic Party will help decide the Senate race, and could determine whether Democrats can win control of the Senate.

So Talarico, a former middle school teacher and state lawmaker, was taking time to shake hands and pose for photos with people outside Memo's Restaurant, which was at capacity with people wanting to see him. Valdez, waiting her turn, pondered aloud why those she knew had voted Republican.

“They thought a better economy, but obviously it didn’t,” she said, before beaming for a photo with the candidate.

Inside Memo's Restaurant, the crowd was revved up, shoulder to shoulder, below beating fans, as Talarico opened his speech.

“So many politicians show up at the border to demonize and weaponize,” Talarico said. “We are doing the opposite. We are showing the beauty of our border communities.”

It was one of the few times Talarico referenced the border during his stop, turning instead to an economy he says is rigged to help “mega donors” and criticizing Paxton as a “puppet politician" for the wealthy.

“We can’t get ahead no matter how hard we work, no matter how much we save, because the system is rigged against us," he said.

Talarico is not the first Democratic Senate candidate in recent years to draw crowds and give the party hope of winning in the reliably Republican state. Beto O'Rourke went on a similar mission in 2018 and failed.

Republicans remain confident about Texas, but Democrats see some reason for optimism.

While Trump gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, opinions of the president have fallen among Hispanics overall since he took office, according to AP-NORC polling. Only 29% of Hispanic adults nationally approved of his performance as president in a June AP-NORC poll, an apparent drop from 41% at the start of his second term.

In communities along the Rio Grande River, which defines the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas, the ebb and flow of migrants isn’t an abstract political issue. People here still recall — often with empathy — hundreds huddled in reflective emergency blankets under a bridge, and the hit to local businesses and town coffers.

Little aid, many said, came from President Joe Biden's administration.

“It was a nightmare because of him. Now, you don't see no immigrants," said Hector Flores, 72, sitting with his two friends at a McDonald’s in Maverick County, about an hour's drive south of Memo's Restaurant.

Maverick County had one of the sharpest swings toward Trump than any county in the country in 2024, from backing Biden by 10 percentage points in 2020 to supporting Trump by 19.

The three men of varying political persuasions weren't following the Senate race particularly closely. But the issues on their minds were the same ones Talarico and Paxton have been talking about, from high costs to ICE and social issues.

Under past presidents, costs were OK, said Eduardo “Lalo” Riojas, 73, who sat next to Flores. Now, “You go down to HEB to buy merchandise, groceries," he said, trailing off without the right English word.

“Expensive,” Flores offered.

“Yeah,” said Riojas, who supports Talarico. “Mr. Trump is crazy.”

For Flores, who works with orphanages across the border in Mexico, those high prices aren’t making him question his Republican vote. Nor is he politically moved by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s sometimes lethal operations in the interior, which have ruffled some Trump supporters, both Hispanic and otherwise.

“I love ICE,” said Flores.

Mike Garcia, 76, who sat across from the two and said he voted for Trump three times in a row, was more wary.

“The ones they’re killing, some of them, been here in the United States for years and years and got children," Garcia said.

He said Paxton, who has been impeached, then acquitted, and faced allegations of corruption and extramarital affairs, has a “horrible reputation." But he also is bothered by comments Talarico has made about God's gender, a statement Paxton has used to attack his opponent as he appeals to Texas voters' conservative values.

Garcia still didn’t know which candidate he'll support come November.

Paxton has leaned more on immigration enforcement as an issue, including during his own border stop in the Rio Grande Valley.

Speaking in a circle of supporters in McAllen, Paxton first plugged the lawsuits he filed against the Biden administration over immigration enforcement, and his endorsement from the National Border Patrol Council.

He then returned to some of his core attacks on Talarico, including repeating the Democrat's statements that “God is nonbinary,” which Talarico — a seminary student — said on the Texas House floor several years ago, citing Scripture.

His campaign's director of Hispanic outreach said Paxton has delivered what Hispanics want, including taking on criminals and companies that gouge consumers, and attacked Talarico as “wimpy.”

“Hispanics know Ken Paxton is a strong man who shares our values, and we see in James Talarico a wimpy liberal,” Alex Alarcon said. "No one looks at him and thinks, now there’s a guy who’ll protect us from the cartels.”

Talarico didn't avoid talk about immigration enforcement completely during his border tour.

At a news conference, he stood in Sanderson, Texas, alongside local sheriffs to pledge investment in surveillance tech to catch illegal crossings and to hire more border patrol agents and immigration judges.

Later, after a town hall where voters aired their frustrations over affording rent, property taxes and healthcare, Talarico spoke with The Associated Press about what's been happening here.

"The Biden administration failed border communities like this, and so people were feeling disillusioned. They were open to an alternative and Republicans came down here with some big promises," he said.

Now, “they’re seeing a lot of those promises weren’t kept."

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Associated Press journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux in Washington contributed to this report.